Rosie's Ramblings

By Sandra Rosenzweig
     
      On the Verge of Convergence
      Back in January, I wrote in a column about low-cost, ultra-simple videoconferencing using Skype and a Logitech Web cam. Recently, a couple of our testers raved about the relatively new Skype VoIP (voice over Internet protocol) phones that cost between $49.95 and $200. Easy to set up, they say, and then you have low-to-nonexistent Skype rates at home and away.
      You see it coming? Wireless voice via the Internet?no, even better, low-cost wireless voice via the Internet?free, in fact, if you call other Skype users, no matter where they are in the world. But, wait, it gets even better. With a Skype phone, you eliminate the computer in the middle. Use the device at any hotspot?home, airport, conference room, the Place des Vosges in Paris. I repeat: Now you don't need a desktop or laptop computer to use VoIP. And when many more cities (in collusion with one service provider or another) set up universal and free wireless service, you'll be able to have only one phone in your life?your cell phone, landline, VoIP, audioconferencing, and videoconferencing, all in one. And only one phone number to remember.
      That may be why eBay bought Skype more than a year ago. (There's a whole lot more money to be made from Skype than just auction bidding by telephone?eBay's stated excuse.) Right now, it looks to me so logical to relegate landlines to very specific uses while VoIP becomes the standard for consumer telephony?so obvious that I believe it actually will happen.
      For a relatively short time (three to five years at the most), the AT&Ts and Vonages of the world will compete to establish their own VoIP technology as the new communications standard. They'll compete for your dollars (as well as government regulatory favors) by offering loss-leader pricing on hardware, coverage, and even some extras such as free premium accounts on eBay?or, maybe, on Westlaw. And then the merging and purging will start, and the money (yours) will roll into pockets (theirs).
     
      Mobile Meanderings
      I'm not the visionary I once thought I was?all I do is soliloquize on products after they're released to the public (sometimes waaay after)?so I'm not sure how much I trust my own judgment here, but I'm convinced that Palm-operating-system-driven gadgets are in the midst of end-of-lifing themselves. (Ain't computer jargon wonderful?) If Microsoft can end-of-life Windows 95 and 98 without drawing a single manslaughter charge, think what we could accomplish with some ancient software and a sawed-off shotgun.
      Yes, I suppose Palm could effect a comeback the way Mac computers did. After all, on paper Palm OS gadgets have a larger market share than Apple does, even though both are surprisingly low. However, as my father used to say, figures don't lie, but liars figure.
      Here's how I see the market sectors. First of all, Palm doesn't have the iPod to boost its bottom line (as Apple does to help support its Macs). Second, one of the supposed causes of the Apple Macintosh's low market share is that it abandoned the low-end, low-profit market for desktop PCs. I haven't done the math, but what if you removed all the inexpensive PCs from HP's and Dell's gross profits? How would Apple fare in the percentage wars then? Palm, on the other hand, hasn't eschewed any market, not even that of its rival Windows Mobile platform (which, by the way, has about 50 percent of the handheld operating system market?and that's including RIM's BlackBerry in the mix).
      If Palm had managed to redesign its own operating system within the past three years?multitasking would have been nice, for starters, or the power to run fairly complex programs for handheld computers?maybe the company would at least have enough cash to maintain the quality of its hardware. For example, the early Palm Treos I tested were wonderfully designed (for their time), integrated beautifully with the contacts database (for their time), and had great sound quality (for PDA phones of their time). The last few Treos I tested all had sound problems. But many manufacturers have picked up the slack, producing Windows-based Pocket PCs that not only do phones but also calendars, contacts, to-do lists, news streams, crossword puzzles, and "traffic-and-weather-together." Some load Microsoft PowerPoint presentations you can show using any available projector. You can get court calendar dates, supplied by third-party developers, not to mention music. And movies.
      Yep, it's time to jump the good old S.S. Palm?all the rats have left already.
     

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