Weaker student credentials account for less than half of bar passage decline, study says

Bar applicants’ undergraduate GPAs and LSAT scores have declined in the last five years, but these changes only account for 33 percent of the concurrent decline in bar exam pass rates, according to a State Bar study. From 2013 to 2018, June bar passage fell by 16 percentage points to 40.7 percent.

“To the extent that there was a narrative going on around the country that the primary reason for the decline in bar passage ... was that law schools are admitting students with lower entering credentials, this report doesn’t support that narrative,” said David Faigman, dean of UC Hastings College of the Law and a study advisory group member.

“It shows the bar’s reluctance to reexamine its cut score is unwarranted,” added Michael H. Schwartz, University of the Pacific McGeorge School of Law dean.

California law school deans have long been lobbying for the exam’s cut score to be lowered. In 2017, a bid to temporarily lower the passing score, endorsed by 20 deans, was rejected by the state Supreme Court.

In January, the American Bar Association will consider a potential standard requiring 75 percent of a school’s students to pass within two years in order to maintain ABA accreditation, a benchmark that schools with first-time pass rates under 60 percent will have difficulty meeting, according to Kyle McEntee of Law School Transparency.

The bar’s report, issued Friday afternoon, called Performance Changes on the California Bar Examination, is the fourth State Bar study investigating declining passage rates. The report linked student characteristics, such as law school GPA and demographics, to exam outcomes, drawing on data from 11 American Bar Association-accredited law schools in California.

The study establishes the impact of entering student credentials and law school performance on bar exam results, accounting for 20 to 50 percent of exam score variability. However, a “substantial portion” of the decline in bar exam results “still remained unexplained,” according to the study, and further research must be done to elucidate these factors.

“I’m hoping that the study will help the Supreme Court see that the bar passage cut score is unnecessarily high and really doing a disservice to students,” said Anthony Niedwiecki, dean of Golden Gate University School of Law.

The study concluded the law school GPA was the single most important predictor of the bar exam score. While law school GPAs showed little change from 2013 to 2017, as law schools grade on a curve, mean undergraduate GPAs of bar applicants decreased from 3.40 to 3.35, and mean LSAT scores decreased from 159.4 to 157.1. The decline was especially pronounced in the bottom quartile of the LSAT distribution.

Law school GPAs, LSAT scores and undergraduate GPAs showed the strongest correlation to bar exam scores, as expected, though most student characteristics, including ethnicity, gender and age, showed a statistically significant relationship. Performance in specific law school classes wasn’t correlated to performance on those exam subjects. Overall law school performance was correlated, however, suggesting better law school exam takers also perform better on the bar exam.

“It showed students who did well in law school, regardless of their entrance qualifications, did well on the bar exam,” said Mitch Winick, dean of Monterey College of Law and a study group advisory member. “While that seems obvious, it’s nice to have that confirmed.”

California Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye said the high court was awaiting the results of this study and an ongoing attorney practice analysis study, expected to be concluded in December 2019, before revisiting the question of whether to alter the bar exam’s content and passing score.

Winick said he’s optimistic the additional data gathered since 2017 will change the conversation about the exam.

“This study gives the court some confidence that focusing on the cut score is appropriate,” Winick said.