Here's what criminal law will likely look like in 2025

After years of easing lengthier sentencing laws, lawmakers and voters are swinging back toward tougher anti-crime policies. But attorneys who practice in the criminal courts now have a pretty good idea of what these changes will look like next year.

On Friday, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a package of 10 bills designed to fight retail theft and other crimes. Over the summer, lawmakers quietly removed provisions from the legislative package. One would have had each of the bills go into effect immediately as so-called urgency measures.

The other would have declared these laws inoperative if voters passed Proposition 36. This is an initiative backed by many prosecutors and retailers which would roll back criminal justice changes of recent years and make it easier to charge thefts as felonies.

"I think the strategy was to position the attorney general to have to write a title and summary that said, 'All these other laws are going to be repealed if the initiative has passed,'" said Greg Totten, CEO of the California District Attorneys Association and a spokesman for the Proposition 36 campaign. "A lot of law enforcement associations and crime victim organizations joined us in recognizing that the poison pill was purely political."

Had the bills passed with both sets of provisions, courts could have had to cope with one set of changes for several months, then another if Proposition 36 passed. Instead, both sets of changes will go into effect by the beginning of the year. Totten said courts may find some discrepancies between the new laws and the initiative, but sorting these out should not be problematic.

"I don't see a lot of conflict," Totten said. "But to the extent there are any conflicts, the initiative prevails."

A Yes on 36 campaign news release on Friday characterized the new laws as a partial solution and lamented two tougher theft measures lawmakers shelved for the year. It also touted a Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showing Proposition 36 leading 56% to 23% among likely voters.

The campaign has also taken in almost $9 million, much of it from Wal-Mart Inc. and other large retailers.

The No on Prop. 36 campaign has raised $575,000 -- just over half of it via a single $300,000 donation from philanthropist Stacy Schusterman this month.

But the No campaign has not given up. At a boisterous rally outside the State Capitol on Monday, Assemblyman Reggie Jones Sawyer, D-Los Angeles, said the campaign to roll back the last few years of criminal justice law changes has racial overtones and was being pushed by "MAGA politicians."

"Prop 36 says, 'Let's go back to the old days," Jones Sawyer said.

The initiative would change aspects of Proposition 47, which voters passed a decade ago. Notably, Proposition 36 would make it easier for prosecutors to aggregate multiple thefts to reach the $950 threshold to charge a felony under Proposition 47.

"There's a lot of independent research evidence that crime is actually at historical lows, retail theft and shoplifting have not spiked to dramatic levels," Josh Pynoos, a spokesman for the Anti-Recidivism Coalition, told the Daily Journal. "We've seen the polling. It certainly leans one way. We are trying to get more positive stories out about Prop. 47 and the impact that it has made."

Cristine Soto DeBerry, founder and executive director of the progressive Prosecutors Alliance, said the bill package provided an opportunity to temper the potential consequences of Proposition 36. She said her group worked with lawmakers to focus solutions not just on sentencing but on the "upstream" aspect of the problems. For instance, the alliance sponsored SB 1144, which attempts to crack down on the online marketplaces that provide a market for many stolen goods.

"We worked very hard on this legislative package because we felt like the problem was better addressed through more tailored solutions, instead of repealing the law at the ballot box," DeBerry said.

Totten and DeBerry agreed on two things. First, both groups offer dozens of training sessions a year and are now evaluating how to teach prosecutors how to handle the new suite of criminal laws.

Second, each says there will be some challenges.

"The defense bar is going to look at the laws very, very quickly and do an analysis as to whether there is a basis to challenge their constitutionality," Totten said.

DeBerry said there could be problems with AB 1779, a law designed to make it easier to charge a defendant across multiple jurisdictions. But she mostly expects the new laws to stand up to legal scrutiny.

"I don't expect there'll be a lot of challenges," DeBerry said. "There will certainly be plenty of courtroom activity around some of the increased punishments, as defense counsel seeks to reduce them or say their client's case does not qualify for some of these newer enhancements."